Planting when you cannot trust the rains

The costly failure at the start of a season is rarely drought. It is a false start: enough rain to justify planting, then a two-week gap that kills the emerged seedlings and forces a replant with seed you may not have.

Wait for the pattern, not the first rain

A common rule of thumb across the Nigerian savanna is to plant after cumulative rainfall of roughly 20 to 25mm across two or three days, rather than on the strength of one heavy storm. One storm proves nothing about whether the rains have established.

Stagger, do not gamble

Where you have the labour, splitting planting across two or three dates a week or so apart spreads the risk. Losing one planting to a dry spell is survivable; losing the whole field is not. This costs more labour and it is the most reliable protection available without irrigation.

Match duration to what is left

If the rains arrive three weeks late, the variety you planned for is often no longer the right one. The season has shortened, and a medium maturing variety may no longer finish. This is exactly when an extra early variety earns its place, even at a lower yield ceiling. A smaller harvest beats none.

Keep a fallback

Short-duration cowpea, at around 70 to 75 days, can still produce after a failed cereal planting, and fixes nitrogen for next season while doing it. Keeping some in reserve is cheap insurance.